Today I bumped into an article in The Economist and it’s attention grabbing slogan was “The great crime decline continues. No one is sure why“. This got me thinking… about that “peace everywhere” prophecy that God gave me.
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again… I didn’t know what to expect when God said to me that the following would happen
Claim 1: Revival Everywhere
Claim 2: Peace Everywhere
I freely admit that it was terribly unlikely. At the time I wrote that 30% of the world population was involved in wars. If you want to read about the claims in more depth please read this: Peace Is Increasing. At first I could see the crime stats dropping in the USA in 2009 and 2010 and then in South Africa in 2010. Now it can be seen right across the world – even in Mexico!
What changed? A 5% overall decrease in crime!!
During 2010/2011 a total of 2 071 487 (approximately 2,1 million) serious crime cases were registered
in the RSA, compared to the 2 121 887 cases registered during 2009/2010. This means that the total
number of serious crimes was reduced by -2,4% or 50 400 cases.
However, the Portfolio Committee on Police requested that the target should in future not include the three categories of crime labeled as crimes mainly detected as a result of police action. If these crimes are excluded from the calculation, the remaining number of crimes decreased from 1 909 566 to 1 839 645 cases (i.e. by 69 921 cases or -3,7%), with a concomitant ratio decrease of -5,0% (from 3 871.6 to 3 679.9).
The -5,0% decrease is thus the correct yardstick and exceeds the government target two-and-a-half times.
And when the murder crime stats are viewed from 2005 through to 2011 there is a 40,7% decrease (which translates into a ratio decrease of 53,2%), while South Africa’s population increased by at least 28,0% (excluding the massive influx of undocumented immigrants)
In 2011 – download my pdf: National 2011 Preliminary Annual Uniform Crime Report
FBI Releases 2011 Preliminary Annual Uniform Crime Report – According to the FBI’s Preliminary Annual Uniform Crime Report released Monday, June 11, 2012, the nation experienced a 4.0 percent decrease in the number of violent crimes and a 0.8 percent decline in the number of property crimes in 2011 when compared to data from 2010. Violent crime declined in all city groups. Cities with populations of 50,000 to 99,999 saw the largest decrease (5.2 percent) in violent crime. Violent crime decreased 6.6 percent in metropolitan counties and 4.7 percent in nonmetropolitan counties.
This change can’t be put down to an increase in the number of officers, because…
In 2010, the FBI shows there were 1,013,608 law enforcement officers in the United States–7,848 fewer than reported in 2009. – KALW News
Homicides down -6.7%. Kidnapping, as well as violent car robberies, keeps dropping. In comparison with April 2011, the declines are -28.4 percent and -3.4 percent respectively. From InsightCrime.org See my PDF: Mexico’s Murder Rate Inches Down
In 2012 Statistics Canada says there were about two million incidents reported to police last year, about 110,000 fewer than in 2010. The severity of crime index, a tool used to measure the extent of serious crime in Canada, also dropped by six per cent. See my PDF Crime rate in Canada at low – National Post
Strangely, Europe seems only to have peaked, while the other countries are dropping they have been going up. Is this a mystery? Has one region been left out of the global prophecy? Did God get it wrong? I found this PDF and also this appendix PDF to the original above which discusses this data in great detail.
See above… that spike goes in the opposite direction…
See above… broken down into countries
See above… and if we view only property crimes it has the expected downward trend…
See above… but if we view violent crimes across Europe we see the upward trend. What is happening to violent crimes in Europe?
See above… but if we view it by country we see that the main culprit for the spike is in the data for the UK. Why is that? The PDF which I linked to above says this…
The jump in the UK violent crime rate after 1997 reflects a discontinuity in definitions and recording practices.
The Home Office (2008) notices that “the number of violence against the person offences recorded by the police increased by 118 per cent as a result of the 1998 changes […]. Much of this increase resulted from a widening of the offence coverage to include assaults with little or no physical injury, and offences of harassment (again with no injury)” (p. 60). In the inferential part of the paper this will be controlled for by year fixed effects.
The dynamics after the discontinuity, though is genuine.
In other words, the definition of “violence against the person offenses” was changed to include a massive amount of data that was not previously included… so the data spiked up. But after the data was included the downward trend can be seen occuring there as well.
So in the end there is no mystery instance of Europe not following God’s worldwide peace prophecy… it applies to Europe and to the UK and to “violence against the person offenses” as well.
But… what about…
A wonderful friend that goes back about 10 years said that he attributes the change in the USA to an ageing population. So I pointed out to him that this change is all over the world, in countries that are young and are not ageing.
There have been other reasons given, like employment, abortion and policiing and another about prescription psycho-pharmaceuticals… but again this change is everywhere and it is not confined to one country where there has been one of these conditions.
There is only one explanation… Jesus Christ said it and He is doing it. YOU my friend are a witness to it. Just think… one day the world we live in will be a memory and you will have to explain to your grand-kids what it used to be like… and they won’t believe you! 🙂
Would you like to intercede for peace in your country or in the world? All you need to do is get a map of the area you want to pray for and get this list of scriptures (or download the MS Word version) and speak each scripture out over the area you are praying for. It’s as easy as that.